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The Foodtown and Woolworths supermarket brands may vanish from New Zealand under a cost saving strategy by Progressive Enterprises.

Supermarket retailer Progressive Enterprises is on the verge of collapsing its three supermarket brands into one chain - the Countdown brand, reports The Independent business newspaper, citing research from Australia.

The move would see the end of the Foodtown and Woolworths brands in New Zealand, leaving just Countdown to be rolled out in a revamped store concept to compete against rival Foodstuffs' Pak'n Save, New World and Four Square chains. The concept, called 2010c, is also being rolled out in Australia by parent Woolworths.

The Independent cites documents from Macquarie Research Equities which say Progressive "appears poised to collapse its tri-banded retail offer into just one brand after just two store trials of the Australian 2010c format''.

Progressive announced this week it will spend $200 million refurbishing and upgrading back-office systems in existing stores and building three to five new supermarkets each year, but it made no mention of store branding. The company has already spent $320 million in New Zealand on refurbishment since Woolworths bought the business three years ago. It has also rebranded two prominent Auckland Foodtown stores in a new Countdown format.

Woolworths (Progressive's Australian parent company) released second-quarter sales results last week revealing poor New Zealand performance, fuelling speculation it needs to do something to turn the business around.

New Zealand sales in the second quarter were expected to increase by 6 percent compared to the same period last year but they lifted only 3.9 percent to A$1.1 billion ($1.27 billion).

Adding fuel to speculation about a collapse of the brands is Progressive's managing director Peter Smith's response to the Macquarie report this week, said The Independent. Smith didn't deny the report, saying only there was no news to announce.

Statements by Woolworths' chief executive Michael Luscombe have also been interpreted as indicating a brand change. He was asked by Credit Suisse analyst Grant Saligari during a webcast where Progressive was in repositioning the New Zealand supermarkets business. "We've got no doubt that the new store format is the way to go,'' said Luscombe.

"The two stores that we put on the ground as our tests have been performing very well. They were existing stores that were big stores with big numbers and they've been doing very, very strong double-digit growth since that opening. "So we've got the right format, we just need to now get the critical mass of them out there.''

Rival Foodstuffs boss Tony Carter said he had heard the rumours about Progressive restructuring its branding but declined to comment further.

Woolworths paid $2.5 billion in 2005 for Progressive and signalled it would turn around the business within three years by using the Australian model of bulk buying on both sides of the Tasman, centralising distribution systems, lowering margins for suppliers while increasing its own margins, and introducing its own brands with the result of lowering prices for customers. But the plan met with a backlash from suppliers and Progressive's workers, and more customers have moved over to Pak'n Save.

Progressive's profit growth has slumped to under 4 percent in the last two quarters at a time when total grocery and supermarket sales have increased by more than 5 percent in the period, according to the Department of Statistics. Progressive owns 148 Countdown, Foodtown and Woolworths supermarkets. Woolworths will post its half-year results on February 27.

When Goodman Fielder was floated a little over three years ago it was promoted as a company that provided for investors in the same way as its products - bread, butter, milk and oil - provided for the nation. This was staple fare - a share for grannies.

The tagline on the prospectus for the $2.55 billion share float said it all: "Superior market positions supported by heritage brands - dividends and growth supported by a strong financial position."

Goodman Fielder projected growth in trading profits for the first two years of around 17%, a dividend yield of around 6-7% and imputation credits for New Zealand investors - a rare quality for a company that spanned the Tasman. And the company, in its first couple of years, delivered. Results and yields were robust. Sure, it was not exciting stuff, but it filled investors' tummies.

The last year has not been quite so bright. This is not because management has been doing an especially bad job. Instead it reflects the fact that recent economic conditions have thwarted Goodman Fielder at every turn. Goodman Fielder should be a defensive stock.

As a food manufacturer, it should be relatively insulated against the ebbs and flows of the economy. People might be able to put off buying a new car or a meal out, but they still need their (Meadowfresh) milk in the fridge and their (Molenberg) bread on the table. And when the economy roars away, the more highly-branded elements of its offerings such as luxury desserts or fresh cheeses might tempt shoppers.

However, few companies can withstand the volatility that has harried the market over the past year. This is especially the case for Goodman Fielder, whose fortunes are highly dependent on the trajectory of prices in the sector of the economy which has been subject to the most extreme swings in prices - bulk commodities.

In short, Goodman Fielder is proof positive that stability in prices is more important than the absolute level of those prices.

Prices for key ingredients, such as wheat for Goodman Fielder's baking operations and edible oils for its commercial and home ingredients businesses, soared to a peak around the middle of the year. The rise was linked to a belief that elevated oil prices would spur the planting of crops to produce bio-fuel, displacing food crops and thus elevating their prices.

Goodman Fielder's response to this surge was to lock in hedges at lower rates - believing commodities would be "stronger for longer." But as the turmoil in financial markets began to spill over into the real economy and commodity prices fell, Goodman found itself locked into hedges that prevented it from benefiting from the lower prices.

The firm last week warned commodity price hikes would lop $A100 million from its bottom line and it will not start to see the effects of lower prices until the second half of this financial year. The depth and the severity of the downturn have, ironically, unmasked a weakness in its strategy. Goodman Fielder's brands are supposed to be one of its greatest strengths.

Customer loyalty should allow it to pass on these costs. However, during this downturn, shoppers are leaving these in favour of the growing stable of supermarket house brands, depriving the business of one of the key levers to keep earnings on track.

One of the big questions now facing the company is whether the power of its brands in staple food categories has diminished.

As a result of these forces Goodman cut its earnings guidance saying it expected full-year net profits to be in the range of $A191 million and $A204 million, equating to a fall of 8% to 14% on last year's result.

However, it could be a lot worse. Management, led by former National Foods boss Peter Margin, has been working hard to contain these forces with cost cuts including 225 redundancies, rationalisation of its manufacturing sites and a refinement of its distribution channel.

At the same time it has been investing in new products initiatives. In New Zealand this initiative is represented by the development of a specialty cheese facility at its plant in Longburn in the Manawatu and upgrading the plant's yoghurt and liquid milk operation. In Christchurch it is developing a UHT milk facility from which Goodman Fielder will be able to service its emerging market opportunities, particularly in Asia.

Its balance sheet is also sound. As at June 2008 the firm has $384 million available in its banking facilities and net debt stands at around 65%, and interest cover at around 4.6 times.

Reflecting this strength, the firm has already refinanced well over half its long term borrowings at rates that represent a respectable spread over wholesale rates. It is also trying to increase its economies of scale with acquisitions including the River Mill Bakeries in Huntly, independent liquid milk producer Independent dairy producers, dip manufacturer Copperpot and the biscuit manufacturer Paradise Foods.
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Richard Inder is an investment advisor at Macquarie Private Wealth. His disclosure statement is free and is available on request. His clients may hold shares in the firms mentioned. Comments, think differently? Write to richard.inder@macquarie.com

For the third year in a row, retailing performance is likely to be low on the list of concerns among shareholders attending the annual meeting of The Warehouse in Auckland tomorrow.

The questions are likely to be the same as they were in late 2006. Is the company going to be taken over and when?

Stephen Tindall, who controls around 52 percent of The Warehouse, still holds the key to the future of the company he founded. As he is just a non-executive director of the company these days, it is unlikely he will be scheduled to speak to Friday's meeting. But it is probable that shareholders will put the pressure on (as they did last year and the year before) for him to get to his feet and say a few words. It's likely, however, that once again shareholders will get little meat on the carcass. Tindall will most probably reiterate that he will aim to do the best by the company and the shareholders.

Behind the scenes there will have unquestionably have been very recent further, separate, negotiations between Tindall and the supermarket giants Woolworths and Foodstuffs over a possible takeover. Both of the supermarket giants were blocked from making bids when the Commerce Commission successfully appealed against a High Court ruling that such bids could be made.

However, on October 9 The Warehouse blew that out of the water by deciding to stop the move it had made into supermarket retailing with its Warehouse Extra concept. While analysts have speculated that one or both of the supermarket companies will reapply for Commerce Commission approval, they are wrong. Neither party will, because neither party now believes it needs to.

The commission's argument had been that independent Extra could lead to increased competition in the supermarket sector. But Extra is now being wound down and the hurdle is gone. The Warehouse is well under way with plans for the three Extra stores to be converted simply into normal Red Shed general merchandising stores. The company has put the exit and restructuring costs at $10m to $12m before tax but says the move will lead to annualised pre-tax improvements in operating earnings of about $9m. With Extra out of the way both Woolworths and Foodstuffs are keen to strike a deal with Tindall. But price is the big snag.

Before the commission blocked any takeover Woolworths had indicated it was prepared to offer $7.15 a share for The Warehouse. The Australian company paid $6.50 a share for its 10 percent stake, compared with Foodstuff's entry price for its 10 percent holding of about $5 a share.

Doubtless both supermarket companies will now be arguing conditions have changed enormously since 2006 and therefore any acquisition of The Warehouse should be at a much lower price level. The Warehouse stock has been hovering under $4 recently.

From Tindall's perspective, however, there is little reason to rush. He does not have to sell and he will hold out for what he sees as the right price, still likely to be about $8. It appears unlikely any deal will be reached before Christmas and, indeed, Tindall will probably want to see how The Warehouse handles its most crucial trading period in what are truly awful times for retailers.

Shareholders are likely to get a brief update at the annual meeting on latest trading. However, this will probably not add much to the $322.4m first-quarter sales figures presented to the market on November 7.

Both on an overall and same-store basis, the figures were down 1.6 percent on the same time a year ago. Other major retailers such as Briscoe Group and Hallenstein Glasson have actually reported much bigger drops than this recently - Briscoe down 8 percent and Hallenstein Glasson nearly 7 percent lower. As a store that grew up in relatively tough times in the 1980s and 1990s, The Warehouse would rate its chances of holding, and perhaps even increasing, its market share during the downturn.

Relatively robust Christmas trading figures would provide Tindall further ammunition with which to drive up any takeover bids. The likelihood remains that a deal will be done, possibly more toward the middle of next year.

Woolworths and Foodstuffs would still be able to raise the cash despite the credit crunch. Woolworths may ultimately be the more desperate to bolster its position in New Zealand since anecdotally it is still losing supermarket share to Foodstuffs.

In 2006 pretty much all the shareholders present at The Warehouse's annual meeting believed that it would be the last one. Three meetings on nobody will want to be so bold as to definitely say this will be the last time - but it really might be.

Michael Hill’s relatively subdued mood at today’s annual meeting was a realistic reflection of the state of the retail sector. Sales are depressed and most companies are hoping for, rather than forecasting, a good Christmas period.

Hill told shareholders - rather tongue in cheek - that he is optimistic about the next few months because he expected individuals to stop buying yachts and purchase jewellery instead.

Figures in the following table show that the listed retail sector is depressed, particularly as far as the New Zealand operations of NZX listed companies are concerned.

On Monday Briscoe reported that group sales for the quarter ended 26 October were down 11.2% compared with the same period in the previous year, with Homeware sales off 10.2% and Rebel Sports 13.3%. Managing Director Rod Duke said August and September were poor but October was a bit better.

On the same day Hallenstein reported an 8% fall in NZ sales for the 2 August to 31 October period and noted that “trading conditions in New Zealand have been more difficult than Australia”. Finally, The Warehouse told the NZX this morning that group sales for the quarter ended 26 October were down 2.1% with Red Sheds’ sales off 1.6% and Warehouse Stationery 5.6% lower. The company reaffirmed that it expected consumer spending and trading conditions to remain subdued for some time.

These year-on-year sales figures compare with the country’s 5% annual inflation rate. Retail sales are usually subdued during a general election campaign but this election has been exacerbated by wall-to-wall media coverage of the international credit crisis.

Most retailers are highly dependent on the Christmas period and this year will be particularly important because of the depressed trading throughout most of 2008. The retail sector, particularly small mom and pop outlets, will face serious financial difficulties next year unless consumers open their wallets between now and 25 December.

In the ongoing battle for supermarket supremacy there's a lot at stake. Last year New Zealanders spent more than $12 billion at supermarkets with the vast majority of that passing through the tills of the two majors Foodstuffs and Progressive Enterprises.

In both ownership model and approach the two rivals are radically different. Foodstuffs which owns the Pak 'n Save and New World brands is actually a collection of three regional co-operatives controlled by local owner-operators.

By contrast, Progressive Enterprises which runs the Woolworths, Countdown and Foodtown supermarkets is a far more centralised operation owned by listed Aussie retailing giant Woolworths.

The competition between the two has been likened to trench warfare a long grinding battle with progress measured in hard fought increments of a percentage or two of market share. When Woolworths bought Progressive in 2005 it was thought its massive buying power and experience from the Australian market would pose a major threat to Foodstuffs.

But, so far at least, the three co-ops have proved remarkably resilient.

Market-share comparisons between the two chains are complicated by the fact that while the publicly listed Woolworths publishes detailed numbers, the three Foodstuffs co-operatives do not.

Foodstuffs chief executive Tony Carter claims New World and Pak 'n Save had 58.4 percent of total supermarket sales in the year to February, up from around 58.27 percent the year before and around 55 percent when Woolworths bought Progressive in late 2005.

But Progressive chief executive Peter Smith begs to differ. He concedes that Progressive had a small market share loss but says this is largely due to it closing some stores and that the company's market share numbers have been pretty flat over the last two years. "We're sitting on a bit over 43 percent and it's been like that for quite some time," he says.

Most analysts seem to be of the view that Progressive has lost market share over the past three years. Sydney-based JP Morgan analyst Shaun Cousins recently told The Australian newspaper that Progressive had slipped from 45 percent to 43 percent market share.

Tim Morris, of specialist retail research company Coriolis, has compared Progressive's published sales figures with total supermarket sales data from Statistics NZ between 2003 and 2008. While Progressive's sales have grown by 23 percent over the period, the supermarket sector as a whole including independents as well as Foodstuffs grew by 37 percent.

"Foodstuffs has been growing significantly faster than Progressive," Morris says.

He has done work for both companies and describes himself as neutral. "They (Woolworths) talked some good talk when they came in and bought the business. But they've yet to deliver on the market share gains."

There are also significant geographical market share differences. Foodstuffs is particularly strong in Wellington and the lower North Island where Carter claims it has around 70 percent of the market and weakest in Auckland and the upper North Island where he says it has around 52 percent of the market.

"We are weakest in metropolitan Auckland and stronger in the regions. I suspect it's because the focus from our competitor (Progressive) has tended to be on where they live and where they know."

Carter reckons Foodstuffs' decentralised business model, with owner-operators making their own buying decisions, is a big advantage. "We give a lot of discretion to enable guys to tailor their range to the needs of their catchment."

The autonomy and enthusiasm individual store owners have for their staff and customers also make a difference, Carter says.

He also thinks Woolworths' buying power advantage has been over-emphasised. "Half of what we sell is fresh produce and there is no scale advantage in fresh produce. Of the balance, around half is supplied by New Zealand-only suppliers and the other half by multinationals. So they've really only got a perceived buying power advantage on perhaps a quarter of purchases."

In Woolworths' recent result for its New Zealand operations it achieved an earnings before interest and tax (ebit) to sales ratio of 4.19 percent down slightly on the 4.23 percent the year before and well below the 5.52 percent in the Australian supermarkets. "Ebit to sales basically measures how much profit we make from every dollar," Smith says.

The reason for the gap between New Zealand and Australia is because New Zealand has a lot of older stores, a lot of smaller stores and a lot of stores in need of refurbishment, he says. "We've got a lot of old stores that have just had an emphasis on basic groceries but not much else. We're turning that round."

New ordering, merchandising, point of sale and back office systems will be going live by the end of next month, Smith says.

"There isn't anything that's standing still in our business right now. We've had a project going on since we moved here and it's basically re-engineering the business. (Woolworth CEO) Michael Luscombe described it as New Zealand currently having open-heart surgery while it's still walking around. That's effectively what we are doing right now."

Smith promises big investment over the next five years with around 18 to 20 store refurbishments a year.

He points to the Countdown supermarket in the Auckland suburb of Greenlane, recently converted from a Foodtown, as an example of where Progressive is heading.

Painted bright green on the outside with Countdown emblazoned in red lettering, the store has a prominent fruit and vegetable section, stocks a small range of general merchandise such as vacuum cleaners and electronic equipment and features a walk-in beer chiller.

"It's a new generation Countdown you'll see a lot more of those," Smith says. "There were probably some similarities between Countdown and Pak 'n Save in the past but there aren't any now."

But it's the big box Pak 'n Save concept, with its wide aisles and product stacked almost to the ceiling, which has been the main ingredient driving Foodstuffs' growth, Morris says.

"There's a big saving in the Pak 'n Save model. "They do huge turnover per store."

Pak 'n Save has consistently come out as cheapest in Consumer Magazine's regular supermarket price surveys.

But things may be starting to change if Consumer's latest survey is anything to go by. It found that while a basket of 40 basic grocery items was still cheaper at Pak 'n Save in Christchurch and Wellington, it was less than $1 less expensive than Countdown. And in Auckland, Woolworths, Foodtown and Countdown were all cheaper than Pak 'n Save.

Woolworths certainly promised cheaper prices for New Zealand consumers when it first entered the market and drove a hard bargain demanding better terms from suppliers.

But according to one supermarket industry insider, after being beaten up by Woolworths and having to drop their prices by around 10 percent, most suppliers offered the same deals to Foodstuffs and then after the dust had settled quietly raised their prices again.

"It was a hard negotiation for some people when Woolworths came in," says Lindsay Davidson, commercial director of the Food and Grocery Council which represents suppliers. "Most suppliers I'm aware of had a subsequent trading terms discussion with Foodstuffs after Woolworths came in. In a broad sense it's business as usual now."

He's unsure whether there's any lingering ill-feeling towards Woolworths from suppliers. "We do an annual review of supplier preferences and it's all over the map. It varies year on year and category by category."

Smith is adamant that the arrival of Woolworths has led to lower prices. "The market today is a hell of a lot more competitive than when we arrived," he says. But Carter disputes this. "The relative competitiveness of their brands against ours has not improved."

Progressive has come together through various mergers and acquisitions over the past two decades and it along with some of its predecessor companies has had a number of owners, including Hong Kong's Dairy Farm Group and Australia's Coles Myer and Foodland Associates.

Because having the best sites is crucial in the supermarket game, this legacy of changing ownership has had a big impact on the situation today, Morris says. "Most people go to the closest supermarket or the one on their way home from work.

"Foodstuffs has been investing in property for 20 or 30 years. But Progressive in its previous incarnations sold off their property and didn't invest in the future. When Woolworths bought the business there wasn't a portfolio of future sites waiting to be developed. Supermarket retailing is like trench warfare. You've got to just keep throwing waves of troops into the trenches."

He accepts it's taken Woolworths almost three years to sort things because the Progressive systems were bad. "The jury is out to date. Certainly their (Woolworths) track record in Australia suggests you wouldn't count them out."

High food prices may be helping supermarket operators.

Australia's Woolworths, the second largest supermarket operator in New Zealand, today reported sales here increased by 10.6 percent in the June quarter, although only 2.2 percent when normalised and an extra week's trading is excluded.

Comparable sales rose 3.5 percent, which Woolworths said reflected tighter macroeconomic conditions and a decline in the growth of the overall market. The company reports profits next month.

Yesterday, Statistics New Zealand reported food prices in the year to June leapt 8.2 percent, the highest rise in 18 years.

Woolworths bought Progressive two years ago and runs the Foodtown, Countdown and Woolworths brands, whose combined sales rose 7.3 percent in the June year to $4.9 billion.

Chief executive Michael Luscombe said the New Zealand operations were off to a better start this new fiscal year despite his earlier comment that there is "no doubt that New Zealanders are doing it tough", as weak economic conditions persist.

Mr Luscombe said economic cycles come and go and he believes that New Zealand will recover. "We want to be ready for when that happens," he said.

Woolworths said its overall food inflation for the quarter in NZ was 4.6 percent, an increase from the 3 percent experienced in the third quarter, "reflecting increased price pressure on certain products in perishables and bakery and the ceasing of price deflation in produce". Sales growth has declined from 9.9 percent in the first quarter, 5.7 percent in the second and 6.2 percent in the third.

Australia's biggest retailer reported group sales worth nearly half of New Zealand's GDP. Sales including NZ, for the 53 weeks ended June 29, rose 10.7 percent to $A47 billion (NZ$60 billion). Mr Luscombe said fiscal 2008 earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were expected to grow faster than sales while net profit is expected to grow in a range of 21 per cent to 25 percent. On a normalised basis, which removes the impact of the 53rd week, sales were up 8.7 percent.

Woolworths has been taking customers from rival Coles, which is undergoing a major facelift under new owner Wesfarmers, which has said it will take about five years to turn around Coles. Mr Luscombe said trading in fiscal 2008 has been extremely rewarding with the business performing well overall. "The significant re-investment in each of our businesses will continue to drive future growth," he said. "These key investment initiatives include the rollout of our 2010c format stores in supermarkets and our new format BIG W, which are both progressing well."

Woolworths is still awaiting a Court of Appeal decision on whether the Commerce Commission can both Woolworths and Foodstuffs from making takeover bids for The Warehouse. New Zealand-owned Foodstuffs and Australia's Woolworths each have 10 percent stakes in The Warehouse and successfully went to the High Court to overturn the commission's decision to block any potential takeover. The Commerce Commission appealed that decision and the court case was completed in early May. Interested parties expected a decision last month.

Group supermarket sales rose to $A40.313 billion in the year, to be up 8.3 percent on a normalised basis. Sales for the Australian food and liquor business climbed 9.9 percent to $A30.5 billion in the year, with comparable sales up by 6.3 percent. Woolworths opened 30 new Australian supermarkets during the year to bring its total to 780 Australian supermarkets, and 89 Dan Murphy's liquor stores.

Woolworths also owns the Dick Smith electronics chain. Fourth quarter sales in consumer electronics rose 16.3 percent, boosted by 5 new store openings in the quarter. Comparable-store sales rose 3.8 percent.

In a move which flies in the face of the economic downturn, Australian home improvement chain Bunnings says it plans to open six new stores in New Zealand, investing $90 million and creating 500 jobs.

The big-format retailer has announced expansion plans which show its retail outlets could grow from the current 16 to 22 stores - and then to 26 in the near future. Brad Cranston, general manager of Bunnings in New Zealand, said the business would open at Westgate in Auckland, increasing its footprint in Auckland to five big stores. West Auckland was a significant growth area, and the new store would have a hire shop, free DIY clinics, a children's playground, a cafe and two levels of carparking, he said.

Cranston was not concerned about the economic slowdown. Sales turnover was down on last year and same-store sales had dropped within the last two months, but Bunnings views New Zealand as an area of high growth, he said. The sales downturn was "something of a blip" and did not affect the firm's expansion drive.

Bunnings had invested more than $250 million in New Zealand this decade, Cranston said. The business started here in 2001 following the purchase of the Benchmark Building Supplies stores and now makes annual sales of more than $500 million, Cranston said.

Bunnings owned a new Nelson store and would own the new Westgate store, he said. The Westgate deal comes after a new large-format Bunnings store was developed in Nelson, where the retailer opened yesterday. Previously, the chain announced plans to develop stores in Gisborne, Wellington's Lyall Bay and Upper Hutt, and Dunedin. Some of its new stores cover more than a hectare.

Cranston said the business was also examining establishing a further four stores after that. Outlets in Hawkes Bay, Taranaki, South Auckland and the North Shore were quite on the cards, he said. However, plans for those areas were not yet finalised.

Cranston said Bunnings was showing confidence in the market with the new projects. Retail sales have been falling, in line with the shrinking economy, but he is confident about the retail niche Bunnings has carved out since coming here seven years ago.

"The creation of these 500 new jobs will have a positive impact on the community," he said. "As well as offering new employment, Bunnings Warehouse team members are encouraged to play an active part in their local communities by supporting local community groups.

Last year, Bunnings completed the sale and leaseback of 11 retail warehouse properties in Australia and New Zealand, netting A$203 million ($229.5 million). Auckland-headquartered Dominion Funds Management bought five New Zealand properties, while Australian fund Charter Hall bought the remaining six properties in Australia.

Bunnings is owned by Australian conglomerate Wesfarmers, and its main competitor in New Zealand is Mitre 10 Mega, which is also still expanding and aiming for 20 large-format stores.

Mitre 10 has been in New Zealand since 1974 when it was introduced by 15 hardware retailers who had watched the success of the retail formula in Australia. They felt it was time New Zealanders, too, were offered the cost savings achieved when retailers could pool their orders, buy in bulk and promote nationally, Mitre 10 says. More than 120 stores are operating under the Mitre 10 banner including more than 15 Mega stores.

BUNNINGS
* Opened in New Zealand in 2001.
* Has 16 large-format stores.
* Plans to have 22 stores soon.
* Melbourne-headquartered business.
* Became a public company in 1952.
* Founded by migrants from London.

New Zealand's biggest retailer, the Warehouse Group has revised downwards expected annual after-tax earnings by about 10 per cent.

The key contributing factor was a marked downturn in consumer spending since the latter part of May, which had significantly reduced the company's sales and margin expectations for the remainder of this financial year, the company said today.

After-tax earnings for the year ending July 27 were now expected to be between $84 million and $88 million, including reversal of warranty provisions of $7.2 million. The previous range was $94 million to $98 million.

For The Warehouse stores, sales for the month of May were 4.8 per cent ahead of last year on a same store basis, reflecting an expected improvement in performance following a difficult third quarter. Customers responded well during the period to a strong seasonal offer in both apparel and home products, the company said. But consumer confidence and retail spending had deteriorated markedly in recent weeks in response to increasing inflationary pressures on fuel and cost of living.

The company's June and July sales were now forecast to fall well below previous expectations. At Warehouse Stationery sales for May and June month to date were 7.7 per cent below the same period last year.

The Warehouse downgrade comes one day after number two retailer Briscoe Group warned shareholders to expect up to an 80 per cent drop in half year net profit after tax.

In an update to the market yesterday, the operator of Briscoes Homeware, Living & Giving and Rebel Sport stores said it expected net profit after tax for the six months ended July 27 to be between $2 and $3 million. The group had posted a $10.5 million profit for the same period last year. Managing director Rod Duke said like other retailers, it has been experiencing extremely difficult trading conditions, with consumer confidence at its lowest in 17 years. Duke expected the challenging times to continue, with second half results expected to be lower than last year's. But the percentage decline would not be nearly as large as the first half's, he said. Briscoe shares ended yesterday down 11c at 99c.
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As retail trouble spreads across the country, one big firm has announced expansion plans. Hardware retailer Bunnings Warehouse, owned by Australian conglomerate Wesfarmers, it has six new stores planned, which should mean 500 new jobs.

Company general manager Brad Cranston said the fifth of its Auckland stores will be built in Westgate, Waitakere City. "We are pleased to announce plans for this new store for West Auckland. Westgate and the wider West Auckland region is certainly an area of constant growth," Crantson said in a press release.

Bunnings Warehouse has recently unveiled development plans for four further stores in Wellington, Upper Hutt, Gisborne and Dunedin. "The New Zealand market is extremely competitive," said Cranston. "But we have a proven and robust business model that enables us to deliver value to customers. The success of recent new stores in Christchurch and Auckland's Mt Roskill is encouraging and fuelling our commitment to continue at least open three new stores per year," he said.

Cranston said that while plans and locations are not finalised, Bunnings see the Hawke's Bay, Taranaki, South Auckland and Auckland's North Shore as potential areas for further stores.

Briscoe Group expects a potential fall in first half profit of more than 50 per cent as a retailing malaise sets in and says other firms face a similar prospect.

The sporting goods and homeware retailer, widely seen as a barometer of the industry's general health, yesterday reported a 9.66 per cent drop in same store sales for the first trading quarter, ending April 27.  But the announcement came as Wellington listed department store Kirkcaldie & Stains reported a near 13 per cent increase in half-year profits on the strength of a stellar summer. However it also warned of darker days ahead.

Briscoe managing director Rod Duke said rising interest rates and petrol prices were putting the squeeze on households, which would affect the wider retailing industry.  "Being relatively the first cab off the rank, you'll find this particular trend that's being shown in our numbers will be relatively widespread."

Unaudited sales for the quarter were $90.3 million, 6.4 per cent lower than for the same quarter last year.  Sporting goods sales were hardest hit, falling 10.3 per cent to $29.5 million, while homeware decreased by 4.3 per cent to $60.7 million. On a same store basis, sporting goods ales were 15.1 per cent down, while homeware fell 7.1 per cent.

Duke said the retail market for this quarter was "markedly more challenging", with a continuation of the difficult trading conditions experienced during the latter part of last year.  The group expected to report a significantly lower profit for the half year ending July 27, with an estimate of between $5 million and $7 million - down from last year's $10.5 million.

Kirkcaldie & Stains, meanwhile, has overcome the sluggishness reported by the likes of The Warehouse and Briscoe, reporting a net profit for the six months ending February 29 of $829,000, an increase of 12.8 per cent. Sales were up 2.4 per cent, while revenue was up 1.9 per cent to $24.4 million, aided by strong apparel sales.  Managing director John Milford said a hot summer helped fashion sales. A larger gross profit was achieved by making sales at normal margins during the early part of the fashion season. More product was also sourced directly from overseas.

But he was circumspect on the outlook.  "I think we are going to have to work a lot harder to maintain that sort of performance.  "My perspective is that customer confidence is being eroded ... the focus within everything seems to be about the economic conditions.  There are people I could argue who actually have more money to spend because there are people in the country who actually have savings and are earning more interest. Obviously factors like petrol increases and food increases do hit everyone."

An unseasonably long and warm autumn could also work against them, he said.

Forsyth Barr retail analyst Guy Hallwright said while retailers did not all perform in the same way, a drop in sales of 4 per cent - like with Briscoe's homeware business - was a possibility across all store types. He said clothing retailers were very dependent on seasonal weather patterns.

Shares in Briscoe Group closed down 11c at $1.12, while Kirkcaldie & Stains ended up 5c at $2.85.